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Prediction for CME (2023-08-18T19:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-08-18T19:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26559/-1
CME Note: Bright CME seen to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3. There is a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery for most of this event, it is possibly seen in later COR2A difference imagery frames after the data gap ends at 2023-08-18T23:23Z. The source of this CME is a C3.7 class flare from AR13409 (~N21W41) peaking at 2023-08-18T19:30Z with associated brief dimming to the NW of the AR starting around 2023-08-18T19:24Z, best seen in SDO/AIA 193. There is also very quick moving/opening field lines around the same time in SDO/AIA 193 to the NW. There is no obvious arrival across all solar wind parameters.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-22T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 1.0 - 2.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/26565/1
Model Inputs:
2023-08-18T19:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=41.0, Lat.=21.0, Speed=505.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2023-08-19T02:25Z
2023-08-18T22:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=42.0, Lat.=24.0, Speed=540.0, HalfAngle=29.0, Time21.5=2023-08-19T02:49Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-08-22T12:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=1
(kp)180=2

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-REx with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-08-22T22:00Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-08-21T08:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-08-22T08:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230819_022500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230819_022500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230819_022500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230819_022500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230819_022500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230819_022500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230819_022500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230819_022500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230819_022500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230819_022500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230819_022500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230819_022500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230819_022500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 66.05 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2023-08-19T17:57Z

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